The investors in Intellicheck, Inc.‘s (NASDAQ:IDN) will be rubbing their hands together with glee today, after the share price leapt 24% to US$9.00 in the week following its third-quarter results. Revenues beat expectations, coming in 14% ahead of forecasts, and the company broke even on a statutory earnings per share (EPS) level. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company’s performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. We thought readers would find it interesting to see the analysts latest (statutory) post-earnings forecasts for next year.
Taking into account the latest results, the consensus forecast from Intellicheck’s three analysts is for revenues of US$17.1m in 2021, which would reflect a major 62% improvement in sales compared to the last 12 months. Intellicheck is also expected to turn profitable, with statutory earnings of US$0.23 per share. Before this earnings report, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of US$16.3m and earnings per share (EPS) of US$0.22 in 2021. So there seems to have been a moderate uplift in sentiment following the latest results, given the upgrades to both revenue and earnings per share forecasts for next year.
It will come as no surprise to learn that the analysts have increased their price target for Intellicheck 13% to US$11.33on the back of these upgrades. The consensus price target is just an average of individual analyst targets, so – it could be handy to see how wide the range of underlying estimates is. The most optimistic Intellicheck analyst has a price target of US$12.00 per share, while the most pessimistic values it at US$10.00. The narrow spread of estimates could suggest that the business’ future is relatively easy to value, or thatthe analysts have a strong view on its prospects.
One way to get more context on these forecasts is to look at how they compare to both past performance, and how other companies in the same industry are performing. It’s clear from the latest estimates that Intellicheck’s rate of growth is expected to accelerate meaningfully, with the forecast 62% revenue growth noticeably faster than its historical growth of 11%p.a. over the past five years. Compare this with other companies in the same industry, which are forecast to grow their revenue 7.6% next year. Factoring in the forecast acceleration in revenue, it’s pretty clear that Intellicheck is expected to grow much faster than its industry.
The Bottom Line
The most important thing here is that the analysts upgraded their earnings per share estimates, suggesting that there has been a clear increase in optimism towards Intellicheck following these results. Pleasantly, they also upgraded their revenue estimates, and their forecasts suggest the business is expected to grow faster than the wider industry. There was also a nice increase in the price target, with the analysts clearly feeling that the intrinsic value of the business is improving.
With that in mind, we wouldn’t be too quick to come to a conclusion on Intellicheck. Long-term earnings power is much more important than next year’s profits. We have forecasts for Intellicheck going out to 2022, and you can see them free on our platform here.
Even so, be aware that Intellicheck is showing 2 warning signs in our investment analysis , you should know about…
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.