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The Indian economy is on course to reclaim its status as the world’s fastest-growing major economy, according to government projections released on Friday, which put GDP growth at a moderate 9.2% this fiscal year, despite fears about the impact of a resurgent virus on the fragile recovery.

The National Statistical Office (NSO) forecasted 9.2% GDP growth in April 2021 to March 2022 fiscal year (FY 2021-22) in its first advance estimate, which compared to the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) forecast of 9.5% growth last month.

An Omicron-led third wave poses a threat to the economy, since it has the potential to upend growth resurgence across sectors, particularly in the contact-intensive services industry.

“The growth in real GDP during 2021-22 is estimated at 9.2% as compared to the contraction of 7.3% in 2020-21,” as per a statement by the NSO.

The figure is lower than the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and Standard & Poor’s (S&P) forecasts of 9.5%, while Moody’s Investors Service recently put India’s growth outlook at 9.3%. According to Fitch Ratings, the economy will grow by 8.7%.

The World Bank has forecasted an 8.3% growth rate, whereas the OECD has forecasted a 9.7% growth rate.

India is expected to grow at a faster rate than China, which is expected to grow at 8%.

As per NSO estimates, GDP in actual terms in 2021-22 will surpass the pre-COVID level of Rs 145.69 lakh crore (US$ 1.95 trillion) in 2019-20.

The manufacturing sector is expected to rise by 12.5% this fiscal year, compared to a contraction of 7.2% the previous year.

Mining and quarrying (14.3%), as well as trade, hotels, transportation, communication, and broadcasting services (11.9%). are expected to develop significantly, according to the NSO.

Agriculture is expected to grow at a rate of 3.9% in FY2021-22, up from 3.6% in the previous fiscal year.

It had predicted that India would be one of the few countries to deliver strong productive growth in the medium term.