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NASDAQ COMPOSITE: FLYING ON FUMES? (0845 EST/1345 GMT
The Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) is currently on pace to rise around 25% this year. That puts its rolling three-year rise on track to be 142%. That would be its biggest such rise since the three-year period ending Dec. 31, 1999, just prior to the bursting of the tech bubble.
Meanwhile, the IXIC ended at an all-time high on Friday. That makes 46 record closes so far in 2021 vs 55 for all of last year.
However, one measure of the Composite’s internal strength has once again broken down:
After hitting a high of 75.7% earlier this month, which was well shy of its 2021 peaks, the Nasdaq New High/New Low (NH/NL) index fell to 53.3% on Friday. That was its weakest reading, with the IXIC at a record close, since Aug. 30. Back then, five trading days later, the Composite topped and then slid as much as 8% into its October trough.
Of note, just since early 2020, there have been five sharp IXIC declines from record high-territory, averaging about 15%, all of which were preceded by multi-week/multi-month NH/NL index divergence.
Unless this measure can at least reclaim its descending 10-day moving average, the risk is that it continues to trend down to test the 2020 trough, which was at 1.2%.
Additionally of note, last week saw three Hindenburg Omens triggered on the Nasdaq, and two on the NYSE Composite (.NYA).
These clusters can highlight an especially fractured market, vulnerable to instability.
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Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own
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