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In recent polls of voting intention, President Emmanuel Macron leads the race, but with only about a quarter of the vote. Zemmour, meanwhile, has come close to matching Le Pen’s support, with numbers hovering in the midteens. Analysts caution that these early numbers can be volatile. But if Zemmour maintains or builds on his position, that could give him a shot at reaching the second round of the elections, facing off against Macron.