Some Verastem, Inc. (NASDAQ:VSTM) shareholders are probably rather concerned to see the share price fall 40% over the last three months. But that doesn’t change the fact that the returns over the last year have been very strong. During that period, the share price soared a full 122%. So it is important to view the recent reduction in price through that lense. More important, going forward, is how the business itself is going.
Let’s take a look at the underlying fundamentals over the longer term, and see if they’ve been consistent with shareholders returns.
Verastem wasn’t profitable in the last twelve months, it is unlikely we’ll see a strong correlation between its share price and its earnings per share (EPS). Arguably revenue is our next best option. Generally speaking, companies without profits are expected to grow revenue every year, and at a good clip. That’s because fast revenue growth can be easily extrapolated to forecast profits, often of considerable size.
Verastem actually shrunk its revenue over the last year, with a reduction of 56%. So we would not have expected the share price to rise 122%. This is a good example of how buyers can push up prices even before the fundamental metrics show much growth. Of course, it could be that the market expected this revenue drop.
The graphic below depicts how earnings and revenue have changed over time (unveil the exact values by clicking on the image).
We consider it positive that insiders have made significant purchases in the last year. Having said that, most people consider earnings and revenue growth trends to be a more meaningful guide to the business. So we recommend checking out this free report showing consensus forecasts
A Different Perspective
It’s good to see that Verastem has rewarded shareholders with a total shareholder return of 122% in the last twelve months. Since the one-year TSR is better than the five-year TSR (the latter coming in at 15% per year), it would seem that the stock’s performance has improved in recent times. Given the share price momentum remains strong, it might be worth taking a closer look at the stock, lest you miss an opportunity. I find it very interesting to look at share price over the long term as a proxy for business performance. But to truly gain insight, we need to consider other information, too. Consider for instance, the ever-present spectre of investment risk. We’ve identified 2 warning signs with Verastem , and understanding them should be part of your investment process.
If you like to buy stocks alongside management, then you might just love this free list of companies. (Hint: insiders have been buying them).
Please note, the market returns quoted in this article reflect the market weighted average returns of stocks that currently trade on US exchanges.
This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.
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